Digital Marketing November 6, 2019
Gearing up for the 2019 Shopping Season
在线视频It’s beginning to look a lot like… shopping season!
在线视频As consumers gear up for the holiday shopping season, we at SimilarWeb decided to take a look at seasonal shopping trends of years past, and try to come up with our own predictions for the 2019 season.
*For purposes of this analysis, we will review traffic and conversion trends to the top 100 shopping sites (as they were in 2018).
As expected, traffic to shopping sites peaks during the holiday shopping period. In 2018 that increase was 31.9% during the entire season – though specific shopping holidays were much more popular. Black Friday and Cyber Monday traffic exploded: increasing by 132% and 121%, respectively. The shopping season appears to be growing over time, as seasonal traffic increased 6.2% YoY.
While sites as a whole showed increases as mentioned above, the changes per category are dramatic. Not unexpectedly, the biggest mover in absolute figures was the marketplace category (dominated by amazon.com) – which saw an increase of 829M monthly visits (a relative increase of 28%). That said, the category making the most significant move relative to itself and the category is the apparel category, with a 47.5% increase in average monthly traffic. The sporting goods category saw a 61.5% increase in monthly traffic, but given its small size, didn’t contribute to overall growth.
在线视频While the marketplace category is responsible for 66% of the group’s traffic, it actually only influenced 57.6% of growth. Meanwhile the apparel category, responsible for just 14% of baseline traffic, was responsible for 21% of the group’s growth. This means that marketplace growth was not proportional to its actual size, while the apparel category outperformed its share during the season.
Amazon was, as always, the absolute growth winner of the season. It saw an increase of 416M monthly visits during the season, over the Jan-Oct baseline. That said, it’s not seeing as much percentage increase as others: site traffic was up 27% during the season, compared to walmart.com’s 52%, target.com’s 87.8% and bestbuy.com, which doubled its traffic.
Sites to Watch
Reviewing our list of sites over time, we found that some sites saw YoY seasonal traffic increases, despite baseline traffic decreases. These include walmart.com, target.com, bestbuy.com and kohls.com, among others. For these sites, we’ve noticed that baseline traffic has actually increased in 2019 (to date) – in some cases, this increase is dramatic: etsy.com – 21% increase in baseline traffic, dickssportinggoods.com – up 11%, kohls.com – up 6.9%.
However, traffic is only one indicator of seasonal success, and measuring total conversions reveals the rest of the story. Looking at these sites, we find that overall conversion volumes increased 55.3% during the Nov-Dec season. Kohls.com saw the most dramatic increase in conversions – up 251% during the season, while bestbuy.com, jcpenney.com and target.com all also saw conversions more than double during the season.
Looking at conversion rates provides us with a better visualization of which brands are succeeding in improving performance over time. We see that both kohls.com and target.com managed to improve both their baseline and holiday season conversion rates. Their ability to improve seasonal traffic despite decreasing baseline traffic last year, coupled with their increase in baseline traffic this year, makes target.com the site to watch as we look towards the 2019 season.
在线视频This shopping season brings huge opportunities for some major retailers, with an increase in baseline traffic hinting at a successful season ahead. We are mostly interested in seeing the performance of two major sites: target.com and kohls.com. These sites saw traffic and conversions increase dramatically YoY. Stay tuned for our follow up posts throughout the season, as we check in on our predictions.